I'll def give this a read my good man. appreciate that.
I'd say we're currently in mid stages of 3rd-gen DeFi. they're already lofting out legislation/language that says hardware wallets are under scrutiny and cloud providers need to KYC; I think targeting these and imposing mandatory onchain registration is what takes us out of 3rd gen into 4th gen. I'd say the 4th gen stage lasts.... 7-10 years? it will evolve into a variation of 5th gen (next piece will be on this).
overall I think it takes around 15-20ish years for the US to capitulate, drop the global tax requirement, and realize the era of Bretton Woods/SWIFT/petrodollar abuse is over. another piece I'm working on called The El Salvador Method touches on this.
I do think they'll drop it when they see the low-trust society they've bred makes many completely fine abandoning it. they only do the global tax thing because they can get away with it. they'll double down before they realize it's over though. I expect they'll make penalties worse initially (like canada is discussing now).
You are my favorite… Crypto writer? Financial philosopher? Long-form decentralization enjoyer? Sci-fi grunge artist?
Tough to say exactly what you are; like an open-source developer on trial, you resist classification. Please keep up the good work. Thank you for putting your insights on Substack, for those of us who have more difficulty accessing X and other social media.
man I really appreciate this. honestly I struggle to answer this question myself when people ask. I'm glad you enjoy it. if there's a trend to it I'd say it gets down to the raw essence of adversarial domains? mostly. that's where the name of the blog comes from. as far as I can tell I strip things down to their core components, and with a clarified understanding of how it works then extrapolate from there in a way that follows that logic. I don't do this intentionally, it's just how I navigate things.
Excellent article as usual. May I share https://disruptive-horizons.com/p/internet-makes-governments-impotant-bottlenecks as a complement?
Also, how many years do you estimate each stage to take?
I'll def give this a read my good man. appreciate that.
I'd say we're currently in mid stages of 3rd-gen DeFi. they're already lofting out legislation/language that says hardware wallets are under scrutiny and cloud providers need to KYC; I think targeting these and imposing mandatory onchain registration is what takes us out of 3rd gen into 4th gen. I'd say the 4th gen stage lasts.... 7-10 years? it will evolve into a variation of 5th gen (next piece will be on this).
overall I think it takes around 15-20ish years for the US to capitulate, drop the global tax requirement, and realize the era of Bretton Woods/SWIFT/petrodollar abuse is over. another piece I'm working on called The El Salvador Method touches on this.
Interesting, so you think this will also make the US drop their citizenship tax?
I agree that it's unsustainable in the long term (see https://disruptive-horizons.com/p/the-fatca-disaster) but I wonder if it will disappear in 15-20 years.
I do think they'll drop it when they see the low-trust society they've bred makes many completely fine abandoning it. they only do the global tax thing because they can get away with it. they'll double down before they realize it's over though. I expect they'll make penalties worse initially (like canada is discussing now).
You are my favorite… Crypto writer? Financial philosopher? Long-form decentralization enjoyer? Sci-fi grunge artist?
Tough to say exactly what you are; like an open-source developer on trial, you resist classification. Please keep up the good work. Thank you for putting your insights on Substack, for those of us who have more difficulty accessing X and other social media.
man I really appreciate this. honestly I struggle to answer this question myself when people ask. I'm glad you enjoy it. if there's a trend to it I'd say it gets down to the raw essence of adversarial domains? mostly. that's where the name of the blog comes from. as far as I can tell I strip things down to their core components, and with a clarified understanding of how it works then extrapolate from there in a way that follows that logic. I don't do this intentionally, it's just how I navigate things.
anyways thanks again for the kind words sir.